For april 2012, the Indonesian Crude oil Price has been on average at USD 124,63, only slightly lower than for March 2012. For the past 6 months it brings to an average of USD 119,08 per barrel. We are very close to the treshold authorizing automatically the raise of BBM price (USD 120,75).
In May, if the trend of the ICP is superior to an average of USD 122,95 per barrel, we wiould hit the prerequisite for a hike on June 1st, 2012.
As a reminder, here is the ICP for the past 6 months:
November 2011: USD 112,94
December 2011: USD 110,70
January 2012: USD 115,91
February 2012: USD 122,17
March 2012: USD 128,14
April 2012: USD 124,63
President SBY recenty declared that the government would implement a policy to significantly reduce the volume of subsidized BBM due to its increasing cost. It's all fair for me but it is a wrong politic in my opinion. Many commercial vehicles are running on premium and small businesses simply can't afford Pertamax, especially in the far provinces. Pertamax in Manado was IDR 11.250 at the pump, yesterday which is almost IDR 7.000 more expensive per liter than Premium. The reduction of stocks in subsidized BBM (Premieum) has created havoc in Manado, with incredibly long queues of pick ups and angkot at each SPBU. By solidarity with our drivers I went to queue with some of them on Friday and we've been waiting 3 (yes, three) bloody hours just to fill tanks!
The policy of restricting BBM to vehicles below 1500cc is a joke. Most vehicles you would be able to buy and maintain in Manado are the usual Toyota/Daihatsu/Honda/Nissan/Suzuki with 99% being at a maximum of 1497cc or running on solar!
They are just, as usual, displaying a lack of understanding of economics.
While queuing, I had time to discuss with more than 30 drivers of angkutan barang or angkutan penumpang and they were all fed up, wondering why the government doesn't raise the price and authorize a bigger stock of premium. Black market around each SPBU in Manado is incredibly prolific, selling by galon of 5 liters of by botol, subisidized BBM at IDR 6.000 or more per liter. The politic of the government is just plain ridiculous.