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Ebola Spiraling Out of Control

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  • Ebola Spiraling Out of Control

    *Note* My emphasis with this thread is not to spread fear concerning the epidemic, but to demonstrate how the government of Liberia is going about this in the worst possible way.

    Today's news out of Liberia is disheartening.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28865632

    They've walled off a ghetto, spreading panic in the local population. There are a few obvious conclusions we can draw from this.

    A.) That the local population will riot.
    B.) That infected people will flee, along with others, possibly out of the country. I doubt checkpoints will keep them in a place where they feel unsafe.
    C.) That the government of Liberia has no remaining resources to deal with a disease like Ebola. It is using the most desperate of measures to contain an epidemic.

    "Since the beginning of the year, 1350 people have died of the virus in four West African countries. New UN figures show that between 17 and 18 August, there were 221 new cases and 106 deaths."

    That is an alarming increase, and it is suggested that the number of cases far outstrip the reported number. This could be averted with proper resources; especially more doctors.

    What is Indonesia doing to prepare for the possibility of an Ebola outbreak? I think Indonesia might be slightly better prepared, but I suspect that some of the same elements at play in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone would be at play in Indonesia.

  • #2
    It certainly does have the feel of an even bigger catastrophe just waiting to happen.
    Sasa Bule is having a bayi!

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    • #3
      Should the Haj this year be cancelled? Is that possible? Less people traveling = reduced risks.

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      • #4
        I was in Uganda a few years ago when scores of people became infected with the Ebola virus. Most of the cases were in the more remote north of the country and there was just 2 reported cases actually in Kampala. If I remember rightly the victims were brought to the city for medical attention but died shortly after arriving. Thankfully it didn't spread to epidemic proportions but I must admit the thought of an airborne virus such as Ebola was a lot more frightening than some of the risks I have faced in more socially "unstable" parts of the world.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by ScooterIndo View Post
          I was in Uganda a few years ago when scores of people became infected with the Ebola virus. Most of the cases were in the more remote north of the country and there was just 2 reported cases actually in Kampala. If I remember rightly the victims were brought to the city for medical attention but died shortly after arriving. Thankfully it didn't spread to epidemic proportions but I must admit the thought of an airborne virus such as Ebola was a lot more frightening than some of the risks I have faced in more socially "unstable" parts of the world.
          IIRC Ebola isn't airborne...
          sigpic
          bassist, perl ninja, random stranger

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          • #6
            Originally posted by MadCat View Post
            IIRC Ebola isn't airborne...
            Respirts say many of the new cases have come from a local TM healer who was "treating" people and managed to spread the disease. Then the locals rioted and shut down a clinic because people were coming for treatment. News reports say they looted bloody bedding which is probably a good way to catch the virus.

            Basic stuff like not washing dead bodies, maintaining sanitary conditions and giving hospitals enough equipment to manage seem to be enough to stop the spread. And not rioting and shutting down health care facilities. Unfortunately these are countries where polio is coming back because of local inefficiencies and odd beliefs about vaccinations. So good luck with keeping it under control.

            Panic causes people to do stupid things which spread the disease. Staying calm and rational allows good decisions to be made. Reality is this thing will burn itself out quickly if the controls can be put in place. Don't touch sick people or dead bodies with your bare skin, you probably wont get it.

            I would think Indonesians generally have more common sense.

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            • #8
              Originally posted by sul1995 View Post
              Should the Haj this year be cancelled? Is that possible? Less people traveling = reduced risks.
              Saudi Arabia already cancelled the plans for people from affected countries, so I think that's all they need to do.

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              • #9
                I click on your last link as it was the one with "health" in his title and seem more "scientific"... I never trust anything of the type of news, they tend to much often to distort information for being more sensationalist and bring more reader.
                Also, not because it is write in the tittle it mean it is true...

                So... from your last link:
                [...]
                What do these findings mean?[SIZE=5] First and foremost, Ebola is not suddenly an airborne disease.[/SIZE] As expert commentators at ProMED stated, the experiments “demonstrate the susceptibility of pigs to Zaire Ebolavirus and that the virus from infected pigs can be transmitted to macaques under experimental conditions… they fall short of establishing that this is a normal route of transmission in the natural environment.” Furthermore, because human Ebola outbreaks have historically been locally contained, [SIZE=5]it is unlikely that Ebola can spread between humans via airborne transmission.[/SIZE]

                However, the study does raise the possibility that pigs are a host for Ebola. If this proves to be true in the wild, there are direct ramifications for prevention and control measures. It is still unclear what role pigs play in the chain of transmission. To continue work on answering this question, the team plans to take samples from pigs in areas known to have recently experienced Ebola outbreaks.
                [...]
                La motivation vient en se motivant ~ Motivation come by self-motivation

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                • #10
                  You may recall that Taiwan's first response to SARS was to quarantine an entire hospital, thereby concentrating the disease and virtually ensuring that more people would be exposed (within the building).

                  Regarding B in Dan's OP, this is generally true in epidemiology regardless of panic. An American MD friend who works closely with the Singapore government explained that patient zero for a given country is likely to have already entered by the time border controls have been set up. This might explain why Singapore did NOT have special screening set-up during the avian flu scare the way they did when SARS was happening a few years earlier.

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                  • #11
                    zzzzzz
                    Last edited by phokas; 07-10-14, 22:36.

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                    • #12
                      Originally posted by PhilippeD View Post
                      I click on your last link as it was the one with "health" in his title and seem more "scientific"... I never trust anything of the type of news, they tend to much often to distort information for being more sensationalist and bring more reader.
                      Also, not because it is write in the tittle it mean it is true..
                      Great Phil now read the other 5 links I posted - and ask yourself afterwards, if given how sure you are, would you move your family to an Ebola infected country ??

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                      • #13
                        Sensational and unnecessary headline. Ebola is not a problem for Indonesia. (Or USA or Saudi etc)

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                        • #14
                          Originally posted by ScooterIndo View Post
                          Great Phil now read the other 5 links I posted - and ask yourself afterwards, if given how sure you are, would you move your family to an Ebola infected country ??
                          I don't have that much time to lose. I never said I would happily move in a city with very low sanitary system with a population totaly uneducated about basic hygiene with a deadly virus rampaging around.
                          What I said it's you can not catch ebola by simply walking some km away of an affected area.

                          From the text I read they made suspicion about ebola could be transmissible by air in droplet (which is not airborn), but for that you need to be in a enough close range to be able to be splash by the sneeze of someone infected.


                          I have grow up in a farm and we ever had to deal with an airborne virus.
                          It was a crazy game were we need to give an effective drug when the animal was sick (not effective if given earlier). We had 24 hour for detect one sick, more long than that it was dead. We lost 30% of our herd.

                          Ebola is caried (without affecting) by monkey, pork, bat, etc... If it was airborne it will be long time since we would be all dead.
                          La motivation vient en se motivant ~ Motivation come by self-motivation

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                          • #15
                            There's a great game/app called "Plague" on android which simulates the spread of a disease throughout the world. You have to modify the disease until the entire world population is dead, then you win. The current Ebola situation is quite similar to the early stages of that game.

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