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  • Discussion: Potential unrest pending the upcoming election results

    I must admit that I am concerned about the upcoming elections. My view on this is that the country is facing a very close election, with only 2 candidates who seem to be very close in the polls. It's heading towards a very close race and because there is only 2 candidates, it pretty much splits the country in half: the Prabowo camp vs the Jokowi camp.

    From my discussion with some friends, some people are concerned about riots and violence if Jokowi wins. The reasoning behind this is that Prabowo's supporters may seem more out of control than Jokowi's supporters. After all, the FPI supports Prabowo and of course there is also the whole history with Prabowo and the 98 riots that are cause for concern.

    On the other hand, these people also tend to think that if Prabowo wins, it is unlikely that there would be riots as they expect Prabowo to be very heavy handed in handling unrest.

    In my opinion, my main concern is in the case where Jokowi wins. If Prabowo supporters feel it is unfair, they may direct their anger towards foreigners, especially considering their candidate's very nationalist speech.

    I am trying to prepare myself for the worst case scenario, however unlikely it is. Better safe than sorry. I know of some people who have already booked their tickets so as to be out of the country during the elections. I know some people will say that I am a fool and worried for nothing and that's fine. I'm just concerned for my family, I don't have a big company behind me to repatriate me in case sh*t hits the fan and I'm just trying to prepare myself just in case.

    So what is your opinion on this?

  • #2
    Someone just called me and wants to give me prabowo badge to wear in case he DOESNT win lol, it may come in handy.
    Funny that i dont even vote.
    But i hope there wont be any riots
    Doh
    Last edited by LittleMonster; 01-07-14, 13:29.
    Lost in Jakarta's trafic jam

    Comment


    • #3
      I dont think youre a fool at all, all the points you have raised are valid and i have also had simillar discussions with friends on this subject. All i can say is that living in BSD (am i right ??) you are out of the main areas of the city renound for having large expat populations, Kemang for example. In the event that there is violence from any sore losers it will be more than likely focused (as usual) in the central city areas (DPR bundaran HI etc) I dont think that the FPI would be bothered to "take revenge" against a few bules living on the outskirts of the city. Whilst nationalistic in nature i would like to think that Prabowo supporters can differentiate between foriegn big business with politically motivated vested interests and innocent longterm expats like yourself. In the event there are any instances of violence, i am sure it will be dealt with and be all forgotten about within a few weeks after the election results are announced.

      Comment


      • #4
        I understand your concern and admit I also thought about this. I'm not an expert but here's my rp1000.

        Circumstances are different now to 1998 (I wasn't here then but this is my guess). The regions have a lot of autonomy and are decentralized, so even though the system appears chaotic it is actually pretty stable in a way. The power is held as much by the Kabupatin as any other level. IMHO this is sort of like a washing machine and politics gets mixed up and churned around with regions and federal all mixed in. It's confusing in the washing machine but serves a purpose of allowing democratic values to be expressed and the confusion sort of has its own checks and balances. 'The Akubra guide to Indonesian Politics'.... there you have it. From a bule with no idea what they are talking about but arrogant to express an opinion anyway.

        Anyway people assume Prabowo is going to be a demon and that may not be correct. He appears pro-western in many respects, his brother has been out talking to business and overseas groups and trying to counteract what he is saying in public. My guess is he won't be encouraging riots because that will hurt him if he loses and wants to run again. But I don't really care who wins, the washing machine will continue and little will change in a hurry.

        I won't be driving around on election cause the traffic will be held up with campaigning, but also not leaving the country.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by El_Goretto View Post
          I must admit that I am concerned about the upcoming elections. My view on this is that the country is facing a very close election, with only 2 candidates who seem to be very close in the polls. It's heading towards a very close race and because there is only 2 candidates, it pretty much splits the country in half: the Prabowo camp vs the Jokowi camp.

          From my discussion with some friends, some people are concerned about riots and violence if Jokowi wins. The reasoning behind this is that Prabowo's supporters may seem more out of control than Jokowi's supporters. After all, the FPI supports Prabowo and of course there is also the whole history with Prabowo and the 98 riots that are cause for concern.

          On the other hand, these people also tend to think that if Prabowo wins, it is unlikely that there would be riots as they expect Prabowo to be very heavy handed in handling unrest.

          In my opinion, my main concern is in the case where Jokowi wins. If Prabowo supporters feel it is unfair, they may direct their anger towards foreigners, especially considering their candidate's very nationalist speech.

          I am trying to prepare myself for the worst case scenario, however unlikely it is. Better safe than sorry. I know of some people who have already booked their tickets so as to be out of the country during the elections. I know some people will say that I am a fool and worried for nothing and that's fine. I'm just concerned for my family, I don't have a big company behind me to repatriate me in case sh*t hits the fan and I'm just trying to prepare myself just in case.

          So what is your opinion on this?
          Whoever wins, SBY is still in control...until the turnover. I remember I read somewhere in this forum that Kalla had warned of chaos if Jokowi lost, unexpected isn't it? Indeed, most foreigners like Jokowi to win, but not all. That's why I feel the need to speak out (that some foreigners do like Prabowo). I am hearing that the FPI "support" Prabowo for the following reasons; 1. If Jokowi wins, FPI has nothing to worry about. 2. If Prabowo wins, FPI could be disbanded, so they "support" Prabowo now hoping he will be soft with them later. 3. FPI was hoping that their "support" will cause Prabowo to lose votes from the moderates. So you see, the support is no support at all. Regarding the 98 riots, I believe (based on lots of research) it had nothing to do with Prabowo. My opinion, foreigners have nothing to worry whoever wins. But it is wise to keep ample supply of food in your house, just in case.

          Comment


          • #6
            I guess it would just be weird to have a president of Indonesia whose main aim is not personal enrichment, or enrichment of his family. That could be why so many outsiders are supporting Jokowi. Whether it would actually change anything on the ground - well probably not. There'll still be bad traffic, loud mosques, litter everywhere, poor education and too many motorbikes, that's for sure.

            Comment


            • #7
              How long does it take for results to be announced? Same day? 1-3 days after?

              i just haven't heard anything about Prabowo that would make me interested in seeing him win.
              Sasa Bule is having a bayi!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Jaime C View Post
                How long does it take for results to be announced? Same day? 1-3 days after?

                i just haven't heard anything about Prabowo that would make me interested in seeing him win.
                But he wants to bring the World Cup to Indonesia - surely that is positive?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Michael2014 View Post
                  But he wants to bring the World Cup to Indonesia - surely that is positive?
                  Bring world cup to indonesia? How? If he wins he will only get 5 years to do that and another 5 years if he gets to win again. How is it possible to bring world cup to indonesia ? Lol
                  Lost in Jakarta's trafic jam

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I feel that fears are overblown. This will be the 3rd time that Indonesia is having direct presidential elections, and the first 2 times were rather ordinary. For there to be sustained violence and rioting there needs to be underlying cause, namely economic ones. There is of course a chance that there will be some small scale rioting by disappointed supporters, but I seriously doubt anything resembling 1998.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Michael2014 View Post
                      But he wants to bring the World Cup to Indonesia - surely that is positive?
                      I'm sorry, Indonesia is not ready for the World Cup. It would take at least 100 billion to upgrade infrastructure to an acceptable level, and then there are terrorist threats to deal with. An Indonesian will land on the moon or Mars before the World Cup comes here.

                      Maybe in 30-50 years if they really worked on it.

                      Even other Asian countries with better infrastructure, like Thailand, are unlikely to host in the near future. China is at the top of the list, but has a lot of human rights problems. Taiwan is ready too, but China would "block" it.
                      Sasa Bule is having a bayi!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ScooterIndo View Post
                        I dont think youre a fool at all, all the points you have raised are valid and i have also had simillar discussions with friends on this subject. All i can say is that living in BSD (am i right ??) you are out of the main areas of the city renound for having large expat populations, Kemang for example. In the event that there is violence from any sore losers it will be more than likely focused (as usual) in the central city areas (DPR bundaran HI etc) I dont think that the FPI would be bothered to "take revenge" against a few bules living on the outskirts of the city. Whilst nationalistic in nature i would like to think that Prabowo supporters can differentiate between foriegn big business with politically motivated vested interests and innocent longterm expats like yourself. In the event there are any instances of violence, i am sure it will be dealt with and be all forgotten about within a few weeks after the election results are announced.
                        Yes, I live in BSD so hopefully, if there is any riot, we shouldn't be in the heart of it. However, the area I live in has a lot of Chinese-Indonesians as well as foreigners and it could be a prime target all while being quite isolated. Moreover, the Banten administration is notoriously corrupt so I really wonder if anything would be done at all.

                        My concern about Prabowo supporters is that they're not very well educated and this can be felt in Prabowo's speeches and performance during the debates where he used very simple words and vague concepts that are easily understood by the masses. When you are poor and you live day to day next to the well-off, simple connections are easily made and anger can be easily stirred up.

                        Thanks for your support btw

                        Originally posted by akubrahat View Post
                        I understand your concern and admit I also thought about this. I'm not an expert but here's my rp1000.

                        Circumstances are different now to 1998 (I wasn't here then but this is my guess). The regions have a lot of autonomy and are decentralized, so even though the system appears chaotic it is actually pretty stable in a way. The power is held as much by the Kabupatin as any other level. IMHO this is sort of like a washing machine and politics gets mixed up and churned around with regions and federal all mixed in. It's confusing in the washing machine but serves a purpose of allowing democratic values to be expressed and the confusion sort of has its own checks and balances. 'The Akubra guide to Indonesian Politics'.... there you have it. From a bule with no idea what they are talking about but arrogant to express an opinion anyway.

                        Anyway people assume Prabowo is going to be a demon and that may not be correct. He appears pro-western in many respects, his brother has been out talking to business and overseas groups and trying to counteract what he is saying in public. My guess is he won't be encouraging riots because that will hurt him if he loses and wants to run again. But I don't really care who wins, the washing machine will continue and little will change in a hurry.

                        I won't be driving around on election cause the traffic will be held up with campaigning, but also not leaving the country.
                        I am more concerned about the immediate events following the election results (or even pre-results). I am confident that if Prabowo is elected, any change that could affect us foreigners will be gradual and we will have time to prepare. And I agree that considering his funding sources I don't think he's ready to get rid of foreign interests in Indonesia just yet. Unfortunately this public stance wouldn't be popular enough to gather votes.

                        Originally posted by sul1995 View Post
                        Whoever wins, SBY is still in control...until the turnover. I remember I read somewhere in this forum that Kalla had warned of chaos if Jokowi lost, unexpected isn't it? Indeed, most foreigners like Jokowi to win, but not all. That's why I feel the need to speak out (that some foreigners do like Prabowo). I am hearing that the FPI "support" Prabowo for the following reasons; 1. If Jokowi wins, FPI has nothing to worry about. 2. If Prabowo wins, FPI could be disbanded, so they "support" Prabowo now hoping he will be soft with them later. 3. FPI was hoping that their "support" will cause Prabowo to lose votes from the moderates. So you see, the support is no support at all. Regarding the 98 riots, I believe (based on lots of research) it had nothing to do with Prabowo. My opinion, foreigners have nothing to worry whoever wins. But it is wise to keep ample supply of food in your house, just in case.
                        This is a good point about SBY still being in power. I believe the hand over is in October, right?

                        You also make a good point about the FPI. I didn't see it that way and it's true that it makes sense in some way.

                        As for Jusuf Kalla's comments, I haven't read about it, but I do know about his affiliations with PP meaning that he does have access to manpower if he ever felt like stirring some troubles. But going further, it is also possible that there may be chaos because people will simply think that they've been cheated. I have a feeling that a lot of people also believe that Jokowi will win by a landslide (despite what the polls say, however accurate they might be). I also believe that people voting for Jokowi are looking for a more transparent Indonesia and may feel that if Jokowi loses indeed it must be because someone manipulated the votes, and this could also trigger some very powerful emotions that lead to riots. Already the Jokowi campaign team has sent teams to watch the polling stations to ensure that everything is fair (under what authority though?). Maybe they are preparing the terrain to justify protests in the eventuality that they lose?

                        Originally posted by dafluff View Post
                        I feel that fears are overblown. This will be the 3rd time that Indonesia is having direct presidential elections, and the first 2 times were rather ordinary. For there to be sustained violence and rioting there needs to be underlying cause, namely economic ones. There is of course a chance that there will be some small scale rioting by disappointed supporters, but I seriously doubt anything resembling 1998.
                        I think there are causes to be pissed off because what has changed for the poor since the 98 reform? Corruption is rife, police and military abuse their powers and act with total impunity, life is getting more and more expensive, the value of the rupiah is dropping and the economy seems to be at the mercy of foreign investors and policies (such as quantitative easing by the US).

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          [QUOTE=sul1995;405290]Regarding the 98 riots, I believe (based on lots of research) it had nothing to do with Prabowo. /QUOTE]Really ?? Didnt do your research very well then did you. I was in Jakarta during the 98 riots and witnessed some horrible things first hand. At the time there were lots of whispers and rumours - many which have been corroburated and proven 16 years later with the release of documents and witness statements. All you have to do is read the recent Wiranto statements in the press.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by El_Goretto View Post
                            I think there are causes to be pissed off because what has changed for the poor since the 98 reform? Corruption is rife, police and military abuse their powers and act with total impunity, life is getting more and more expensive, the value of the rupiah is dropping and the economy seems to be at the mercy of foreign investors and policies (such as quantitative easing by the US).
                            Indonesia currently has the 3rd highest consumer confidence rating in the world. Serious consumption and personal spending. Compared to 1998, not only the middle class but even the poor have HP and do FB plus direct web access. Life is very different.

                            Ask your maid or driver about the cost of putting kids through *public* school then and now. Ask them what it was like to renew a KTP (now it's lifelong, if you don't relocate), register a marriage, get a birth cert, get a SIM.

                            Jakarta is still a fount of corruption, as explained in numerous threads (but somehow God missed hitting it with the tsunami of 2004, bad aim I guess), but smaller cities have really made routine bureaucracy easier for the average person.

                            High level mega-project corruption exists in every country. Why do you think it's called "military industrial complex" in the US?

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              BTW, don't believe the polls. TV One is backing Prabowo, forever saying "race is 50-50 now" while Metro is backing Jokowi.

                              Does anyone in our forum know what the actually polling technique is? I think they used to call people on landlines, which of course skews the polling group to those rich (and urban) enough to have phones.

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