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Prabowo for president, what's your take?

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  • Originally posted by JohnOates View Post
    Dafluff gets it question is.... It's out in the open now but what's being done about it? If the KPU is ignoring it then expect a rigged election and Prabowo win
    At this point in time, there isn't anything to be done yet. If the KPU's count in Indonesia is carried out reasonably fairly, then Jokowi will be declared winner, regardless of the blatant ballot stuffing in Malaysia. If KPU doesn't announce the correct result and Jokowi is not declared victor, then things will get messier, as his team will have to challenge the results. At that point though, I imagine it would be too late to expect a fair result, as a Prabowo win would indicate massive corruption within KPU itself.

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    • Originally posted by dafluff View Post
      Then give me ONE even remotely possible explanation as to why this so-called "Wilfrida effect" is ONLY seen in mail-in ballots.
      That’s easy dafluff, most of the mailed-in ballots were from TKI, they were working either as domestic helper, plantation worker or factory worker, they cannot get leave of absence to vote in person.

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      • I wonder if they also need to embed some copy of id card with the voting letter as proof or anything , if not then anyone else could vote for them
        Lost in Jakarta's trafic jam

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        • btw if anyone is interested in the domestic real counting you can do it from this website http://pilpres2014.kpu.go.id/c1.php ofcourse you have to do manually by yourself...
          10 step to eternity...

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          • Originally posted by sul1995 View Post
            Any statistician will tell you that every statistic has a chance of being wrong. In this case, Malaysia has about 2 million Indonesian nationals. An increase of 3036 people (from 5876 to 8912) who voted via polling stations and 38512 people (from 4868 to 43380) who voted via mail, is nothing because the total people who voted is just 52292 (out of 2 million, imagine). But if you look at the percentage of increase, no doubt you are blinded by the figure. This is where statistics can be wrong. As George Canning said, “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth”. I will not be surprised if Prabowo wins by a landslide via mail votes because most of it probably came from TKI (overseas workers). If you remember, Prabowo was active in supporting the defense of Wilfrida, the TKI accused of murdering her Malaysian employer. Possibility of vote rigging is there, but let us not accuse until there is solid proof.
            I have a feeling that's more in reference to surveys and polls, where there can be problems for example with leading questions. In an "A-or-B" scenario like voting, things are a lot clearer. Without knowing the context of that quote, it's impossible to tell.

            Regardless, the varying quick count results already show that some parties are willing to take advantage of that malleable property of statistics. As has been mentioned, though, when carried out with the correct methodology by a reliable group of statisticians, quick count results are reliable. That's why the quick counts carried out independently by 7 reliable organizations arrive at similar numbers — Jokowi winning by a margin of between 4% and 6.88%.

            On the other hand, the dodgy survey organizations don't agree on their numbers. JSI's and LSN's results don't even really show a Prabowo win because the spreads (0.2% and 1% respectively) are smaller than their margins of error. That leaves only two quick counts, by IRC (spread of 2.2%) and Puskaptis (spread of 4%), on Prabowo's camp.

            Populi Center's result, which shows Jokowi winning, is also not significant because the margin of error is higher than the spread (1.9%).

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            • Originally posted by SomeoneHere View Post
              btw if anyone is interested in the domestic real counting you can do it from this website http://pilpres2014.kpu.go.id/c1.php ofcourse you have to do manually by yourself...
              Thanks. Jawa Barat is listed at over 80% but this morning's news on TV said there is an "ulangan" (re-vote) there and in Padang.

              Is it the whole province that is voting again? How were these areas selected for re-vote, and why?

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              • Originally posted by wisnupurwanto View Post
                Martindo,

                It's quite possible somebody else voted "on behalf" of the registered names; as an example - your wife or other family member are eligible voter but they were not in place when the ballot arrived; then you voted for her, fill the form and fake her signature; and then you send the ballot to the embassy.
                Thanks for further clarification. Actually, my stepdaughter in Central Java got two undangan this year, which I suppose is an improvement over her being disenfranchised in 2009. Apparently, voter registration is done a full two years before an election, so if you moved during that time, you probably get the "invitation" at your old address.

                Anyway, my most recent post about Malaysia referred to manipulation/bullying/bribing, not only fraud. The secret ballot (first fully implemented in US in 1892, but earlier in Australia as well as ancient Greece and Rome) appears to be taken seriously here -- my wife wouldn't even tell me whom she voted for *after* she returned from the voting location.

                As pointed out by Cardinal Sin before the Philippines election of 1986 that overthrew Marcos, secret ballot means you can take the bribe money and still vote the way you want to.

                However, it isn't hard to imagine a setup at a remote plantation in Malaysia where someone actually stands over the person doing the "coblos" and doesn't give the "hadiah" until he sees that the ballot is marked as requested.

                What kind of procedures were in place in the current election, both domestically and overseas, where monitors could prevent or at least report irregularities in the voting?
                Last edited by martindo; 14-07-14, 07:33.

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                • Originally posted by sul1995 View Post
                  If you remember, Prabowo was active in supporting the defense of Wilfrida, the TKI accused of murdering her Malaysian employer. Possibility of vote rigging is there, but let us not accuse until there is solid proof.
                  Good point about "clusters" being counted amidst a total of > 1 million TKI in Malaysia. I'm not sure how Indonesians who are there illegally (no work permit) would be able to vote -- perhaps you can clarify in support of your "2 million" estimate.

                  Also, very good point about defense of Warga Negara Indonesia overseas. The current prez caved in (again, why do we need a general, if he acts so weak???) regarding the Indonesian student who mysteriously "suicided" at NTU in Singapore after a dispute in which his prof (a citizen of China) claimed that the student attacked him -- but the supposed knife was found with its handle missing, thus no fingerprints could be taken! Further, the body was cremated without proper notice of the parents, thus conveniently making it hard for post-mortem evidence to be gathered.

                  Wilfrida is only the tip of the iceberg and one of the more recent cases. However, it's important to consider that a large plantation has thousands of workers, compared to thousands of households that have only one maid each. Which situation do you think would be more efficient in terms of vote buying/bullying? I'm not accusing at this point, just trying to determine how such irregularity/corruption of the election could occur, or which procedures established by KPU worldwide would prevent such problems.
                  Last edited by martindo; 14-07-14, 08:23.

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                  • [COLOR=#333333]That’s easy dafluff, most of the mailed-in ballots were from TKI, they were working either as domestic helper, plantation worker or factory worker, they cannot get leave of absence to vote in person.[/COLOR]
                    Not so easy. The whole Wilfrida thing started in 2010, then Prabowo injected himself into it in late 2013. So here I am again in "broken record" mode: Where is the "Wilfrida Effect" for the legislative election earlier this year? Surely the very same TKI would have voted overwhelmingly for Prabowo's Gerindra, the party whose sole existence is as a political vehicle for him? Did they come in first place in Malaysia? Maybe second or third? No they came in an embarrassing 5th.

                    Nevermind that your "explanation" discounts all WNI at the polling stations as not caring about Wilfrida....what a laugh.

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                    • Sul1995 - Any statistician will tell you that every statistic has a chance of being wrong. In this case, Malaysia has about 2 million Indonesian nationals. An increase of 3036 people (from 5876 to 8912) who voted via polling stations and 38512 people (from 4868 to 43380) who voted via mail, is nothing because the total people who voted is just 52292 (out of 2 million, imagine). But if you look at the percentage of increase, no doubt you are blinded by the figure. This is where statistics can be wrong. As George Canning said, “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth”. I will not be surprised if Prabowo wins by a landslide via mail votes because most of it probably came from TKI (overseas workers). If you remember, Prabowo was active in supporting the defense of Wilfrida, the TKI accused of murdering her Malaysian employer. Possibility of vote rigging is there, but let us not accuse until there is solid proof.
                      It have a huge none sense in your logic.
                      Yes it have a possibility to have a huge raise in the vote by mail as same that is have a possibility for everything, whatever small can it be.

                      If it had a clear convergence for Prabowo it will be reflected in the vote in the boot, but it is not, it is even slightly more strong for Jokowi than it is in Indo. And...

                      ALL THE 38 512 ADDED VOTER FROM PREVIOUS ELECTION HAVE ALL VOTED SOLELY FOR PRABOWO.

                      It don't even have a doubt about it, fraud have taken place.
                      La motivation vient en se motivant ~ Motivation come by self-motivation

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                      • I emailed the PilPres people who handle the vote-counting overseas and they informed me that this is the most current URL:
                        http://www.diasporaindonesia.org/new..._LNRev1207.jpg

                        As you can see, Malaysia is now listed, with 83.7% voting for Prabowo, out of 50,000+ votes counted so far, hardly enough to swing a discrepancy of several % points in the national totals.

                        Note that Hong Kong and Singapore, both of which tend to have many Indonesian maids but few plantation workers, both chose Jokowi by a margin of about 75%-25%. This should cause Sul and others to pause and re-evaluate their logic. There has been abuse of Indonesian maids in many countries, especially those with a large ethnic group of Arabs, Chinese, or Indians.

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                        • If some freak anomaly happen on 22nd, and Prabowo declared the winner, I'm all for revolution.
                          I'm sorry, but they can't shit on us like this...
                          Indonesia is perplexing. Deal with it!

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                          • Jokowi was at 70% ++ in my area, I was not expecting a lot of trouble here in relation to the election...

                            But not... We had our first confrontation Prabowo-Jokowi supporter
                            La motivation vient en se motivant ~ Motivation come by self-motivation

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                            • Originally posted by martindo View Post
                              Thanks. Jawa Barat is listed at over 80% but this morning's news on TV said there is an "ulangan" (re-vote) there and in Padang.

                              Is it the whole province that is voting again? How were these areas selected for re-vote, and why?
                              well re-voting can happen due to many reason but most likely the main reason is because one of the success team from a certain candidate reject the result and followed by Banwaslu-Panwaslu-KPU accept that rejection and then decide to had a re-vote, its never would be a provincial, since if you check at KPU.go.id the provincial count would begin few more day, currently its at Kelurahan level i think, so more likely the re-count only would occure at the "problematic" TPS, this kind of problem also happen alot at Jawa Timur (Madura Island especially) according to the news around.
                              10 step to eternity...

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                              • Originally posted by nyonyahbesar View Post
                                If some freak anomaly happen on 22nd, and Prabowo declared the winner, I'm all for revolution.
                                I'm sorry, but they can't shit on us like this...
                                dont do that nyah, to tell you the truth i'm also a jokowi voters (just so happen jokowi won at alot TPS at our city including my TPS) ... i think even if Prabowo win we really should let him prove himself for a while... even after, a revolution? oh man, no thanks, no matter how worse he may be do you really think Indonesia would stand another revolution this early, its only 16 years ago nyah, and the effect is still exist in many factor... i'm more of staying at a certain province who will declare independence, or seek an asylum somewhere... like it or not i do love this country and its people, i'm sure most of us do deep down... even when the time come and this country are moving at the wrong direction, the last thing i wanna do is making my "ex countryman" to suffer more...
                                10 step to eternity...

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