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Prabowo for president, what's your take?

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  • Originally posted by Missnaughty View Post
    Ok. But long enough to put the Indonesians back to where they started. But what can I say? If he wins, that is what the people of Indonesian want. I believe whatever the result, in this election we have done and play the game of democracy fairly.
    Sure, its possible.
    Aloft! Me hearties! Harharhar!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Missnaughty View Post
      What a remark! If Prabowo wins, we will have the same president for the next 25 years.. My take!
      well i think he could... not litterally but more like making Indonesian type of current Russia and a bit mix of North Korean... just look at his and his ally recent steps... with the new MD3 regulation the Chief of DPR is elected by the majority vote from the parliament + KPK must obtain permission from the parliament to investigate its member, they also said that at july 15 they would make their coalition permanent (good news? not for me), third and most importantly he once said at one of his campaign that the current direct election for Indonesian presidentship is not "fit here"... so isnt it possible that somehow after he won, by controlling the legislative and executive the majority coalition would made their own "rules"?... so i think in summary its actually possible, afterall we are talking about a man who thinks an absolute power is needed in Indonesia...

      for me personally if he ever rule this country i will wait and see for a certain limit, and if my biggest worry begins to happen i would definetly out of here, i aint staying in a country with a Castro/Kim concept...
      10 step to eternity...

      Comment


      • Originally posted by johntap View Post
        He answered: "It's a quiet life .... out of politics.... I am doing this out of an obligation to serve my people." Strange? in what way?
        It's not what he said, it's how he said it. (Lol what a girly thing to say.)

        "What are you going to do if you lose the election?"
        (long pause) (frown) "What??" (indignantly) "I'm very confident I'll win!"

        Originally posted by sul1995 View Post
        I see higher possibility of chaos IF Prabowo wins. WHY? Because Jokowi’s supporters, are barking prematurely that IF Jokowi lost, it will be due to cheating. Now I understand why Kalla warned of chaos should Jokowi lose the election (Source: Post Election, What If… #32).
        Did you not read what people have been saying about quick count in this thread? Quick count, when done by a legit organization using the correct methodology, is highly accurate. In other words, Jokowi has won. Therefore, if Prabowo ends up ahead according to KPU count, he must've done something dirty.

        I don't understand why even the educated Prabowo supporters can't see this. If Prabowo wins, democracy loses.

        Comment


        • [COLOR=#6D6B6B][FONT=sans-serif]Jokowi has won. Why? Because statistics.

          http://electionwatch.edu.au/indonesi...aim-presidency

          From the linked article:

          (Typically, a quick count forecasts the election result plus or minus a margin of error (usually 1%) at a 99% confidence level. Statistically, this means that 99 times out of 100 the election result should fall within 1% either side of the quick count figure.)

          Quick counts take advantage of the fact that each of Indonesia’s approximately 480,000 polling stations finish their count on polling day, after which the electoral commission takes many days to aggregate their individual counts to reach an overall result. This time lag makes quick counts a crucial accountability mechanism to guard against the tallies being manipulated. Electoral experts Eric Bjornlund and Glenn Cowan (the latter of whom invented quick counts in the 1980s) call quick counts ‘the only definitive vote count verification mechanism’.
          [/FONT][/COLOR]
          [COLOR=#6D6B6B][FONT=sans-serif]
          ...

          [/FONT][/COLOR]
          [COLOR=#6D6B6B][FONT=sans-serif]Which of these quick counts should we believe? The credibility of the agencies conducting the quick counts is crucial, because they are easily manipulated. Sampling methodology is key.
          [/FONT][/COLOR]
          [COLOR=#6D6B6B][FONT=sans-serif]A quick count is an accurate predictor of the final result if the sample of voting stations selected is representative of the voting patterns of the whole of Indonesia. Conversely, an agency can easily inflate the result for one candidate by skewing their sample to include more polling stations from their strongholds.
          [/FONT][/COLOR]
          [COLOR=#6D6B6B][FONT=sans-serif]The most credible agencies have all called Jokowi the winner, and all by similar margins. SMRC, Indikator and CSIS all have strong track records for accuracy and integrity in quick counts and public opinion polling over a period of time. Additionally, Kompas is Indonesia's de facto paper of record. All accurately predicted the outcome of the 2014 legislative election within 0.5% of the final result.

          Conversely, the credibility of the agencies that showed a Prabowo win has been questioned. The Australian National University political scientists Ed Aspinall and Marcus Mietzner convincingly list instances of all four agencies publishing inaccurate polls that favour Prabowo or his Gerindra party. One has previously been embroiled in controversy over manipulation of a quick count.
          [/FONT][/COLOR]

          Comment


          • [COLOR=#333333]OK, compared to April’s election, there’s an almost 800% increase in voter participation by mail, how can you be so sure there’s vote rigging?[/COLOR]
            Because I'm not a gullible fool? Because I stayed awake for 1 or 2 statistic classes? Because I don't believe in the tooth fairy? Because I have an ounce of common sense? It's like trying to argue with someone that the sky is blue....either you get it, or you are being deliberately obtuse, or you're on Prabowo's timses....

            To recap:

            In Malaysia, the votes at the polling stations increased about 50% between the April legislative election and the presidential election last week. Ok, the presidential election is more important to people, so the increase makes sense. So you'd expect about the same increase in mail-in votes. Or maybe twice as much. Or heck, lets say 4 times as much....but no, somehow mail in voters increased SIXTEEN times more than polling station voters. Why? There is absolutely no sane reason as to why mail-in ballots increased by such an amazing margin compared to polling station ballots.

            The composition of mail-in voters makes it even more suspect. While at the polls across Malaysia people voted 54%-46% for Jokowi (similar margins as the vote went down in Indonesia), somehow the mail-in ballots came in with Prabowo getting 91% of the votes. Why the large discrepancy? Again, there is absolutely no sane reason as to why this is possible. This result is statistically impossible in a fair election.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by dafluff View Post
              Because I'm not a gullible fool? Because I stayed awake for 1 or 2 statistic classes? Because I don't believe in the tooth fairy? Because I have an ounce of common sense? It's like trying to argue with someone that the sky is blue....either you get it, or you are being deliberately obtuse, or you're on Prabowo's timses....

              To recap:

              In Malaysia, the votes at the polling stations increased about 50% between the April legislative election and the presidential election last week. Ok, the presidential election is more important to people, so the increase makes sense. So you'd expect about the same increase in mail-in votes. Or maybe twice as much. Or heck, lets say 4 times as much....but no, somehow mail in voters increased SIXTEEN times more than polling station voters. Why? There is absolutely no sane reason as to why mail-in ballots increased by such an amazing margin compared to polling station ballots.

              The composition of mail-in voters makes it even more suspect. While at the polls across Malaysia people voted 54%-46% for Jokowi (similar margins as the vote went down in Indonesia), somehow the mail-in ballots came in with Prabowo getting 91% of the votes. Why the large discrepancy? Again, there is absolutely no sane reason as to why this is possible. This result is statistically impossible in a fair election.
              Dafluff gets it question is.... It's out in the open now but what's being done about it? If the KPU is ignoring it then expect a rigged election and Prabowo win

              Comment


              • Originally posted by JohnOates View Post
                Dafluff gets it question is.... It's out in the open now but what's being done about it? If the KPU is ignoring it then expect a rigged election and Prabowo win
                I'm afraid that could happen. They've succeeded in discrediting legitimate quick counts to the point where the public now disregards the results. They're now even demanding that TV stations be banned from broadcasting the quick count results, regardless of whether the organizations conducting the quick counts are legit. (http://nasional.kompas.com/read/2014...ran.yang.Nakal)

                This seems like a deliberate effort to minimize suspicion in preparation for when the official KPU count comes out different from the quick count results. Even though quick counts are supposed to help keep the official count accountable, they have now lost that power. Now whatever KPU says, goes.

                It's natural to assume that right now the Prabowo team is trying to get as many votes as they can to make up the difference between the two candidates, eg. the mailed votes in Malaysia. I can only hope that the spread of 5% is too much for them to close.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by dafluff View Post
                  Because I'm not a gullible fool? Because I stayed awake for 1 or 2 statistic classes? Because I don't believe in the tooth fairy? Because I have an ounce of common sense? It's like trying to argue with someone that the sky is blue....either you get it, or you are being deliberately obtuse, or you're on Prabowo's timses....

                  To recap:

                  In Malaysia, the votes at the polling stations increased about 50% between the April legislative election and the presidential election last week. Ok, the presidential election is more important to people, so the increase makes sense. So you'd expect about the same increase in mail-in votes. Or maybe twice as much. Or heck, lets say 4 times as much....but no, somehow mail in voters increased SIXTEEN times more than polling station voters. Why? There is absolutely no sane reason as to why mail-in ballots increased by such an amazing margin compared to polling station ballots.

                  The composition of mail-in voters makes it even more suspect. While at the polls across Malaysia people voted 54%-46% for Jokowi (similar margins as the vote went down in Indonesia), somehow the mail-in ballots came in with Prabowo getting 91% of the votes. Why the large discrepancy? Again, there is absolutely no sane reason as to why this is possible. This result is statistically impossible in a fair election.
                  Any statistician will tell you that every statistic has a chance of being wrong. In this case, Malaysia has about 2 million Indonesian nationals. An increase of 3036 people (from 5876 to 8912) who voted via polling stations and 38512 people (from 4868 to 43380) who voted via mail, is nothing because the total people who voted is just 52292 (out of 2 million, imagine). But if you look at the percentage of increase, no doubt you are blinded by the figure. This is where statistics can be wrong. As George Canning said, “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth”. I will not be surprised if Prabowo wins by a landslide via mail votes because most of it probably came from TKI (overseas workers). If you remember, Prabowo was active in supporting the defense of Wilfrida, the TKI accused of murdering her Malaysian employer. Possibility of vote rigging is there, but let us not accuse until there is solid proof.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by wisnupurwanto View Post
                    I will do if I live in KL. It's not about more and less stirring issues.
                    I'm a member of local election commitee in my country, we did check and return all blank ballots, record it, and send to KPU and keep tracking the data.
                    So, to obtain solid evidence of this fraud is easy.
                    Could you explain the verification procedure briefly, Wisnu? In post #195 you mention checking addresses.

                    However, fraud (mismatched address/name, voting more than once, etc.) is only one problem. Clerical work is not the only essential aspect of the monitoring of an election.

                    Another large problem, in many countries, is bullying and/or bribing. As Cardinal Jaime Sin of the Philippines said in 1986, "Take the bribe, then vote your conscience anyway."

                    In the case of thousands of Indonesians working on any given plantation in Malaysia, what exactly is the procedure for interviewing 10 or even 100 to make sure that there was no coercion by the employer, mafia, or other biased party? In the US, with far more awareness of voting rights/obligations, it used to be common for military commanders to tell their whole unit how to vote.

                    I surveyed money transfer from Malaysia to Indonesia a few years ago, the so-called "remittance corridor" of TKI sending money home. Although there are convenience stores, and even supermarkets (with pulsa sales) on these plantations, there are no banks. Each money transfer is overcharged by mafia types, especially when Lebaran is about to occur. This was explained to me by an Indonesian exec at one of the major money transfer companies who was posted to Malaysia year-round specifically to facilitate repatriation of funds and increase market share.

                    So, it is likely that some bullies are already on the plantations this time of year.

                    What I'm saying is this: How do you know that the person listed in your voter registration "book" is actually the one who voted, and how do you know he or she voted freely? Could you explain the procedures for ensuring this, and how KPU might be alerted to any case of bullying that might arise?

                    If there are any reporters in this forum, you might consider going out to a plantation with a team of 2 or 3 and interviewing voters. Please do it well in advance of the July 22 cert deadline, so KPU could take some action if it is warranted.

                    Comment


                    • since most of people here are interested in Indonesia Presidential Election... i want to share something, it from Indonesia Diaspora Network on which i believe is quite neutral during this election...http://www.globalindonesianvoices.com/14329/pemilu-presiden-hasil-sementara-pemilu-presiden-2014-di-luar-negeri/ ... try to look for the vote result image...
                      Last edited by SomeoneHere; 13-07-14, 14:46.
                      10 step to eternity...

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by SomeoneHere View Post
                        since most of people here are interested in Indonesia Presidential Election... i want to share something, it from Indonesia Diaspora Network on which i believe is quite neutral during this election...http://www.globalindonesianvoices.com/14329/pemilu-presiden-hasil-sementara-pemilu-presiden-2014-di-luar-negeri/ ... try to look for the vote result image...
                        Interesting results. Common sense voting being displayed.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by SomeoneHere View Post
                          since most of people here are interested in Indonesia Presidential Election... i want to share something, it from Indonesia Diaspora Network on which i believe is quite neutral during this election...http://www.globalindonesianvoices.com/14329/pemilu-presiden-hasil-sementara-pemilu-presiden-2014-di-luar-negeri/ ... try to look for the vote result image...
                          No malaysia result there? Or i read i wrong
                          Lost in Jakarta's trafic jam

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by martindo View Post
                            Could you explain the verification procedure briefly, Wisnu? In post #195 you mention checking addresses.

                            However, fraud (mismatched address/name, voting more than once, etc.) is only one problem. Clerical work is not the only essential aspect of the monitoring of an election.

                            Another large problem, in many countries, is bullying and/or bribing. As Cardinal Jaime Sin of the Philippines said in 1986, "Take the bribe, then vote your conscience anyway."

                            In the case of thousands of Indonesians working on any given plantation in Malaysia, what exactly is the procedure for interviewing 10 or even 100 to make sure that there was no coercion by the employer, mafia, or other biased party? In the US, with far more awareness of voting rights/obligations, it used to be common for military commanders to tell their whole unit how to vote.

                            I surveyed money transfer from Malaysia to Indonesia a few years ago, the so-called "remittance corridor" of TKI sending money home. Although there are convenience stores, and even supermarkets (with pulsa sales) on these plantations, there are no banks. Each money transfer is overcharged by mafia types, especially when Lebaran is about to occur. This was explained to me by an Indonesian exec at one of the major money transfer companies who was posted to Malaysia year-round specifically to facilitate repatriation of funds and increase market share.

                            So, it is likely that some bullies are already on the plantations this time of year.

                            What I'm saying is this: How do you know that the person listed in your voter registration "book" is actually the one who voted, and how do you know he or she voted freely? Could you explain the procedures for ensuring this, and how KPU might be alerted to any case of bullying that might arise?

                            If there are any reporters in this forum, you might consider going out to a plantation with a team of 2 or 3 and interviewing voters. Please do it well in advance of the July 22 cert deadline, so KPU could take some action if it is warranted.
                            Martindo,

                            It's quite possible somebody else voted "on behalf" of the registered names; as an example - your wife or other family member are eligible voter but they were not in place when the ballot arrived; then you voted for her, fill the form and fake her signature; and then you send the ballot to the embassy.
                            In small number, might not draw attention - however, additional 38512 is big number and very suspicious. So, what we have to check first, the post office where the ballots posted. I suspect; most of them were signed by the same person, same pen/ink, and posted from same location. Sure, it is not a very strong evidence, but from here we can further sort/filter the suspicious ballots and check the name and adress with the name and address registered by embassy. I'm pretty sure we can find a "crime" pattern here for further investigations. Imagine, if you have to fill thosands ballot registration form and fake thousands of signatures


                            I just quick check PPLN Malaysia website; I notice they don't put the correct passport numbers on the temporary registered list and many of them using the same address. Indeed, big room for cheating.
                            Last edited by wisnupurwanto; 13-07-14, 15:42. Reason: add info

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by LittleMonster View Post
                              No malaysia result there? Or i read i wrong
                              indeed, i wonder about it yesterday, but i guess its because either the malaysia result can be easily obtain (just need to look at KJRI KL web site) or because there is no IDN active member there... you also need to take a note that this is only a temporary vote result, the vote count is still running at some place so it is possible for the result to keep changing... well since i cant put my trust on each side result i rather put my faith on this result (untill it is proven sided or bogus anyway)....
                              10 step to eternity...

                              Comment


                              • [COLOR=#3E3E3E]Any statistician will tell you that every statistic has a chance of being wrong. In this case, Malaysia has about 2 million Indonesian nationals. An increase of 3036 people (from 5876 to 8912) who voted via polling stations and 38512 people (from 4868 to 43380) who voted via mail, is nothing because the total people who voted is just 52292 (out of 2 million, imagine). But if you look at the percentage of increase, no doubt you are blinded by the figure. This is where statistics can be wrong. As George Canning said, “I can prove anything by statistics except the truth”. I will not be surprised if Prabowo wins by a landslide via mail votes because most of it probably came from TKI (overseas workers). If you remember, Prabowo was active in supporting the defense of Wilfrida, the TKI accused of murdering her Malaysian employer. Possibility of vote rigging is there, but let us not accuse until there is solid proof.[/COLOR]
                                Then give me ONE even remotely possible explanation as to why this so-called "Wilfrida effect" is ONLY seen in mail-in ballots.

                                All your "statistics could be wrong" hand waving is the same doubt-mongering that is currently being engaged by the Prabowo campaign team, and is a well documented tactic by his campaign strategist. Congratulations on helping the undermining of democratic efforts in Indonesia.

                                Previously in this thread, indonomad posted this excellent article:
                                http://asiapacific.anu.edu.au/newman...wos-game-plan/

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